Live Tracker · Updated as Logged
SSP5–8.5 was officially declared implausible in April 2026 and dropped — along with SSP3–7.0 — from the scenario framework underpinning the IPCC's next assessment. The studies and headlines built on these retired scenarios keep coming, usually with no disclosure. Each one is logged below, newest first.
Every entry below is a study, report, or news article published after the scenarios were retired — or after their flaws were established in the peer-reviewed record — that relies on them without disclosing their status.
The original extreme scenario, adopted 2011. Flagged as physically implausible in 2017, repudiated in Nature in 2020, and retired from the scenario framework in 2026.
RCP8.5's successor in the current scenario generation. Officially declared "implausible" by the UN's scenario committee in April 2026 and excluded from the CMIP7 framework behind IPCC AR7.
The second-highest pathway, also not carried forward into the CMIP7 scenario set. Frequently substituted for 8.5 in newer studies as the new "high" scenario — despite tracking well above current-policy trajectories.
Use of a retired scenario is not itself the offense. The offense is presenting its outputs as the expected future — with no disclosure that the scenario has been ruled out by the very institutions that created it.
We log studies and articles relying on RCP8.5, SSP5–8.5, or SSP3–7.0 published without disclosure of the scenarios' retirement. Submissions with a link and publication date are reviewed before posting. Contact the American Energy Institute.